The Protests that Changed Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina’s Fall and the Road Ahead
After the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh has struggled to stabilize its political climate. A so-called “revolution” — led by student protestors — unleashed a power vacuum that a number of factions are vying to fill. Amid the turmoil, the future of the country remains unclear, with tensions escalating between competing political forces.
Following a turbulent election in January 2024, Hasina’s government became relentlessly authoritarian, instituting unjustified policies. In June 2024, Bangladesh reinstated an unpopular quota that reserved 30% of government jobs for veterans. This quota was originally established for liberation fighters after Bangladesh's independence in 1971 and eventually expanded to include the children and grandchildren of those soldiers. Now, Bangladesh’s university graduates are facing a high unemployment rate, and these reserved jobs are highly sought after by recent graduates — further worsening already diminishing job prospects. After the government’s reinstatement of the policy, widespread student protests erupted, forcing the Supreme Court to reduce the quota in July. The protests tested the government’s response to the growing power of protests in Bangladesh.
Despite the quota reduction, protestors were infuriated with the police’s violent handling of the demonstrations, which led to an estimated 1,500 people being killed. Protests and subsequent violence escalated when Hasina referred to the protesters as “razakars,” a derogatory term referring to those who worked with Pakistani forces in Bangladesh’s independence war. Dissatisfaction transformed into a means to overthrow Hasina, who retaliated by shutting down the country’s internet and jailing thousands of protestors. In early August, however, protestors raided her official residence, forcing Hasina to resign and flee to India.
An interim government was established, with the protestors calling on Muhammed Yunus, an 84-year-old economist and Nobel Peace laureate, to temporarily lead the country. Yunus — who has now been in power for four months — is confronting a legitimacy issue after Hasina scrapped a constitutional provision that allowed for an interim government. Instead of being supported by a democratic election, Yunus’ authority relies on his popularity with the student protestors and his party. Both are now making increasingly extreme demands. Their requests include banning Hasina’s party, the Awami League (AL), and seeking Hasina’s extradition from India. Yunus aims to stabilize the country, but if their conditions are not met, protesters could take to the streets again.
Muhammad Yunus at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport to return to Bangladesh to lead the interim government | FMT
Yunus’ government also has to maintain the support of the military, whose involvement in politics has grown in recent years. Hasina had filled army leadership ranks with loyalists, giving them access to profitable government contracts. As the protests reached a peak, the military distanced themselves from Hasina, eventually withdrawing support and refusing Hasina’s order to open fire on civilians. After Yunus stepped into power, Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman announced his support for the interim government and promised to help implement reform. Zaman claims that he would help Yunus form a plan to separate the armed forces from politics. However, the military has a long history of staging coups and counter-coups, leading many activists to question the army’s claims of support.
Yunus, a member of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), also faces opposition from within his party. In early November, activists in the BNP rallied in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, to call for quick reform. BNP leaders advocated for the Yunus-led government to hold elections and form a democratic government rather than stay in power. However, Yunus has yet to announce a detailed timeframe for new elections.
Bangladesh has a long history of political violence that is rooted in the rivalry between the BNP and the AL, making the BNP concerned about Hasina’s attempts to make a comeback. Hasina’s party scheduled rallies in early November, which were countered by anti-Hasina protesters. Though her attempted comebacks have been unsuccessful, Hasina’s power and influence will not disappear overnight.
With Hasina out of office, Islamist groups have used the power vacuum to gain momentum. While all Bangladeshi leaders have used religion to a certain degree in politics — usually to consolidate power or appeal to specific groups — the AL maintained a secular stance. Though Hasina has made compromises to appeal to religious sentiments, she was particularly hostile toward extremist Islamist groups and their involvement in politics. The BNP, meanwhile, has been more willing to fuse Islam with politics.
Bangladesh has also had terrorism relatively under control in recent years, especially with Hasina’s government targeting militant groups such as those affiliated with al-Qaeda or ISIS. Hasina appeared to use anti-terrorism as part of her political agenda; in 2020, the number of terrorist attacks decreased, yet the number of terrorist-related investigations and arrests increased.
Major Islamist fundamentalist groups, such as Hefazat-e-Islam and Jamaat-e-Islami, saw restrictions placed on their efforts to advance pro-Islamic policies and undermine secularism. Hasina, who originally tried to work with Hafazat-e-Islam, began to cut ties with the group after Hefazat’s violent protests during India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in 2021. Shortly before her resignation, the Jamaat party was banned after Hasina claimed they were affiliated with terrorist activities. The new interim government reversed this ban and has stated that all political groups can take part in upcoming elections. Given that Bangladesh has a population that is about 91% Muslim and a long history of religious violence, the newfound opportunity for extremist groups to expand Islamist fundamentalist sentiments is raising alarms. These developments are fueling security concerns about the potential Islamification of Bangladesh. However, many of these claims are based on doctored videos that appear to show Muslim attacks on minority groups — indicative of fear-mongering by anti-Islamist actors.
Hindu minorities, in particular, are now a target for both Islamist groups and anti-Hasina protestors. Shortly after Hasina’s resignation, her associates and supporters were confronted with attacks by mobs that faced little intervention from authorities. The AL party has historically protected Hindu minorities against the rise of Islamist groups in Bangladesh, but these minorities now face intense violence and discrimination due to their links to the AL. In early November, the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council stated that there have been more than 2000 attacks against Hindus since Hasina’s resignation, which has been condemned by the United Nations and world leaders. Though Yunus condemns the discrimination, ethno-religious unrest is only on the rise.
Hindus in Bangladesh hold a rally to oppose the discrimination against them and other minority groups | Wikimedia Commons
Violence against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh has shaken the once-strong relationship between Bangladesh and India, highlighting the contrasting positions of the AL, historically pro-India, and the BNP, traditionally pro-Pakistani. Muslim-majority Pakistan and Hindu-majority India have had a violent and tense relationship since British India was partitioned in 1974. The partition created East and West Pakistan, both culturally and ethnically distinct. India was an ally of East Pakistan — now Bangladesh — during its fight for independence in 1971, forging a strong relationship between India and Bangladesh while deepening the hostility between India and Pakistan. Today, Bangladesh struggles to balance relations with both India and Pakistan. Hasina’s time in power was beneficial to India’s border security by supporting India-Bangladesh relations, but now her presence in India has caused additional conflict to the political dynamics of the region.
Although India has said it would work with the new interim government, India has become increasingly concerned over violence against Hindus in Bangladesh. Yunus also faces frustrations from India’s handling of Hasina. Soon after her departure, Hasina has attempted to influence Bangladesh by making inflammatory statements about “terrorist aggressions” against her party and claims that opposing parties stirred the unrest. In September, Yunus claimed that India could keep Hasina until Bangladesh is ready to take her back, but has urged India to silence Hasina until then. In mid-November, Yunus then stated that Bangladesh would seek the extradition of Hasina to send her to trial for her human rights violations during her 15 years in office.
Shaky relations between Bangladesh and India have global implications. India hopes to be a counterweight to China’s influence on Bangladesh. The garment industry, a major contributor to Bangladesh’s economy, is extremely dependent on China. Bangladesh is incentivized to maintain good ties with China, but this would make balancing a relationship with China’s rivals, India and the United States, complicated and strenuous. Now, facing tense relations with India, Bangladesh may need to rely more on China. This would strain strategic alliances between the United States, India, and Bangladesh, leaving Bangladesh caught in the competition between major powers while grappling with internal turmoil.
Bangladesh is also confronting serious domestic concerns. Yunus’ administration has laid out reforms to strengthen security forces, the police, financial institutions, election commissions, and the economy. Alongside mob violence against minorities and Hasina supporters, Bangladesh is facing high inflation and unemployment rates. Its garment industry is built on low wages that are no longer feasible as the cost of living rises — in part due to high food inflation. With declining foreign exchange reserves and increasing hostility toward India, Bangladesh may be forced to turn to Beijing to fund its many reforms, also satisfying China's goal of expanding its influences in South Asia.
Bangladesh’s political turmoil reflects a common theme in South Asia: widespread political instability and power struggles. In the past three years, protests in Sri Lanka forced their president to flee, the Pakistani prime minister was ousted following a no-confidence vote from parliament, and the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. The region is experiencing political instability, economic insecurity, and tensions between religious government and secularism, as well as between democracy and autocracy. Overlaying this is the U.S.-China rivalry that forces South Asian countries to choose sides. Bangladesh has become a case study for the complex power struggle, with the cost being the people who are fighting for fair and free elections and self-determination.
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