Shaping the Future of the Middle East
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) shakes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand (right). Photo obtained via website of President of the Russian Federation
The ongoing unrest in Syria, ignited by the events of the Arab Spring in 2011, has resulted in significant human casualties and extensive dislocation of the country’s population. Syria has faced repercussions from the Arab League, experiencing isolation since its robust response to Arab Spring protests. In the years that followed, Syria underwent a transformation, becoming a stage for global and regional confrontations, with substantial support emanating from Russia and Iran.
A dozen years since the initiation of hostilities, Syria is slowly withdrawing from the global gaze. Bashar al-Assad is presently immersed in diplomatic endeavors with neighboring nations, signaling a notable shift in the regional scenery. This change not only diverges from the aftermath of the Syrian Civil War, but also carries extensive implications for potential alliances and relationships among diverse religious groups in the area.
Bashar al-Assad presided over a government that faced opposition from Sunni groups. His Alawi background, coupled with backing from Iran have contributed to a divide between Sunni and Shia communities in Syria. Nevertheless, in the period following the conflict, al-Assad engaged in efforts to mend these rifts by promoting national reintegration through the restoration of essential infrastructure and the facilitation of the return of displaced Syrian citizens. However, an investigation by some notable nonprofits showed lack of transparency in the distribution of funds for reconstruction in Syria. Funds were mainly allocated toward the rehabilitation of government and military buildings, while less than 10% has been used to rebuild citizens' homes.
Externally, President al-Assad is working on rebuilding Syria’s connections with regional actors through diplomatic efforts, economic cooperation, and soft power tactics. And it has been effective so far; these initiatives are helping Syria gradually reintegrate into the Arab diplomatic landscape. In May 2023, al-Assad was warmly received at the Arab summit in Jeddah, where he had a friendly exchange with Saudi Arabia's crown prince, a contrast to earlier avoidance by leaders. Various Arab nations are pursuing the reopening of diplomatic missions in Damascus, indicating they are inclined towards collaborating with Syrian authorities and resolving regional matters through diplomatic avenues. This shift signals a departure from a phase of tense relationships and isolation, moving towards a more pronounced cooperation and diplomatic engagement. Given the extensive devastation from the conflict, there is an abundance of economic ventures in post-war reconstruction efforts that foreign partners are eager to take part in.
The warming of diplomatic involvement in the Middle East can be linked, in some measure, to the acknowledgment of Syria's substantial strategic value. It possesses the capacity to influence the overall balance in the region, thus making it a pivotal actor in addressing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the protracted Israeli-Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both influential players in the region, have explicitly advocated for Syria’s reintroduction into the regional arena.
This marks a substantial policy shift, one that encounters resistance from the U.S. and other Western states due to the lack of accountability for the Syrian government’s human rights abuses. “We do not believe that Syria merits readmission to the Arab League,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated, “It’s a point we’ve made to all our regional partners, but they have to make their own decisions”. The United States continues to enforce strict sanctions against the country, including blocking foreign reconstruction funds, despite sharing common objectives with Arab countries. These include humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas, combating ISIS, reducing Iran's influence, and addressing the trafficking of the drug captagon. Following Syria's readmission into the Arab League, U.S. lawmakers introduced an "Assad Anti-Normalization Act" to prevent the U.S. itself from normalizing ties with al-Assad as well as tighten sanctions against the regime, and prevent the regime from finding financial loopholes as it has in countries like Russia over the course of the conflict.
Russia has had a crucial involvement in bolstering President al-Assad's military initiatives throughout the Syrian Civil War and still upholds a noteworthy presence within the nation. However, Russia’s extensive involvement in Syria has faced challenges due to its simultaneous engagement in Ukraine. This not only serves to augment Moscow's sway in the vicinity but also provides President al-Assad with a partner in confronting possible external challenges.
Globally heightened tensions with Russia and Iran pose a difficult dilemma for Arab nations who have underscored their hesitancy to be entangled in a competition between Eastern and Western powers, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, they maintain a degree of caution, aiming to uphold their long standing economic and military dependencies on Western allies. But Syria, once perceived as a vital component of the "Axis of Resistance" in conjunction with Iran and Hezbollah, is now embracing a more versatile stance. While Syria upholds robust affiliations with Iran, President al-Assad is concurrently working towards establishing relationships with Turkey, making it clear that al-Assad's primary ambition is to secure the most beneficial positioning for Syria.
President al-Assad's efforts to rebuild Syria's regional relationships herald a transformation in the dynamics of the region. The gradual reintegration of Syria into the Arab diplomatic fold, recalibrations in alliances, and efforts to mend sectarian divisions all carry profound implications for regional stability and security. Nonetheless, this process is intricate and confronts substantial challenges. al-Assad's overarching aim in achieving the support of other Arab nations is to see the removal of E.U and U.S. sanctions, as Syria lacks the capacity to achieve this independently. This approach, centered on the reestablishment of connections within the Arab community, stands as the sole feasible route for al-Assad.
In the labyrinth of post-conflict Syria, where the scars of war have etched a haunting narrative of physical ruin and demographic upheaval, President al-Assad confronts a pivotal juncture. The monumental task of rebuilding a nation fractured by years of conflict unfolds against a backdrop of somber cityscapes, bearing witness to the profound human toll exacted by the brutal civil war.