Trudeau’s Exit, a Conservative Comeback, and Canada’s Fight Against Trump’s Tariffs
On January 6, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as the leader of the Liberal Party. Trudeau pledged to remain in office only until a successor was selected and suspended parliament until March 24. While Canada’s next general election was set for October 20, 2025, opposition parties indicated plans to initiate a no-confidence vote, potentially advancing the election once parliament reconvened. In response, Trudeau's successor, former central bank governor Mark Carnery, called for a federal snap election scheduled for April 28, 2025. With both the Liberal and Conservative Parties now focused on securing the prime minister's seat, the political landscape in Canada remains uncertain.
In 2015, Trudeau ushered in a new progressive era when he achieved a resounding victory and offered a fresh face to Canadian politics. However, in recent years, his image has been marred by a series of scandals and unpopular policies. Strict pandemic regulations, vaccine mandates, rising housing and food costs post-pandemic, and criticism over immigration management have all taken a toll on his and the Liberal Party's reputation. By late 2024, internal pressures within the Liberal party reached a peak, with growing calls to quit coming from Trudeau’s own team. A tipping point came in December, when long-time ally and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland suddenly resigned, citing Trudeau's failure to effectively counter Trump. With Trudeau’s tarnished reputation threatening the Liberal Party’s image, his resignation offered a chance to reset ahead of the upcoming election. In the wake of his departure, the party launched a leadership race to choose the next Prime Minister, forcing candidates to distance themselves from his legacy and define a new direction.
As the Liberal Party struggled to regain its footing, the Conservative Party maintained a steady lead for months leading up to Trudeau’s resignation. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, gained significant traction as Trudeau’s legacy waned. Many Canadians, frustrated by high prices and a sluggish economy, turned to Poilievre for an alternative to what he characterized as Trudeau’s "authoritarian socialism."
When Poilievre won the Conservative Party leadership in 2022, he steered the party further right, highlighting the failures of Trudeau’s progressive agenda. His emphasis on reducing spending, cutting taxes, and securing the border resonated with many Canadians. Poilievre’s focus on a small government and restoring the "Canadian Dream” has been highly effective, using Trudeau’s decline to bring the Conservative Party back into the political spotlight. His populist vision caught the attention of President Donald Trump and his major supporters, but Poilievre’s connection to Trump has sparked controversy.
As the Conservative Party's popularity surged, a new and unpredictable challenge emerged. Trump’s promise to impose harsh tariffs on Canadian exports shifted the playing field for the two major parties. Once sworn into office in January, Trump vowed to impose a 25% tariff on almost all Canadian exports, along with a 10% tax on Canadian oil and gas. These tariffs are anticipated to be devastating for Canada, with experts predicting a rise in the cost of living, particularly for groceries, appliances, and vehicles — further exacerbating already high prices. Trump’s tariffs have been marked by uncertainty, with frequent claims of lowering certain tariffs or increasing others, creating a fluctuating trade environment. With a trade war underway, Canadians are boycotting American goods and even avoiding trips to the U.S., as Canadian leaders encourage the public to support locally-made products.
Beyond this economic pressure, Trump also repeatedly stated that Canada should be annexed and become the U.S.’s 51st state. What initially seemed like a joke has sparked growing concern among Canadians, who now fear that Trump’s rhetoric could materialize through the tariffs. His threats have sparked a sense of patriotism across the country, with many Canadians rallying against the trade conflict. Now, more than ever, Canadians are searching for a leader who can stand against Trump.
Canadians push back against US tariffs, adopting ‘Elbows Up’ as their rallying cry - a hockey term symbolizing readiness to fight | FMT
On March 9, the Liberals picked former central bank governor Mark Carney to lead their party and the country. Carney, who leveraged his economic expertise to counter Trump, had been the frontrunner in the race for weeks. Alongside the other Liberal contenders, Carney drew comparisons between Poilievre and Trump, highlighting their similar tactics of insulting opponents and attacking the media, as well as pointing out that Trump and his allies have praised Poilievre multiple times. While Poilievre — who has been forced to change his message to distance himself from Trump — continues to hold significant support, the gap between the two parties has shrunk.
Though Poilievre is facing backlash, other conservative figures have been taking the spotlight. In Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and economic powerhouse, Premier Doug Ford secured an impressive and rare third consecutive conservative victory during a recent snap election by centering his campaign in opposition to Trump’s tariffs. Ford has emerged as a leading voice in Canada’s fight against Trump’s tariffs, frequently donning a “Canada Is Not For Sale” baseball hat to underscore his opposition. He removed American liquor from store shelves and canceled a contract with Starlink, the internet company owned by Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump. Ford’s growing support marks a significant rise in conservative influence within Canadian politics, signaling a potential transformation in the country’s political landscape.
Against this backdrop of shifting political tides, Mark Carney and the Liberal Party face a difficult path ahead. Despite decades of experience in the financial sector, Carney is a political outsider and now faces a high-stakes campaign to counter the Conservative Party’s growing influence. With the challenges of managing a minority government and the looming threat of a no-confidence vote, Carney called for a snap federal election, scheduled for April 28. The race between the Liberals and Conservatives is now neck-and-neck, fueled by Trump's promises of more tariffs that could further strain Canada’s economy. Positioning himself as more centrist than his predecessor, Carney has pledged to cut taxes and adopt some of Poilievre’s policies to broaden his appeal. Meanwhile, Poilievre continues to sharpen his new message, positioning himself as a staunch opponent to Trump’s economic policies in an effort to win over the many Canadians frustrated by the growing impact of tariffs.
As the newly appointed Prime Minister, Carney now faces the challenge of addressing Trump’s tariffs in a way that will resonate with voters, with the election just a month away. Carney has made it clear that he will stand firm against Trump’s tariffs, demanding both respect for Canada and pushing for stronger retaliatory tariffs. In mid-March, Carney visited several European countries, reinforcing other alliances as US-Canada relations continue to strain. Carney acknowledges that the longstanding relationship between the two countries has changed, and he stresses that Canada needs to adapt to the changing geopolitical and economic environment.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanual Macron at a joint press conference, reinforcing their alliance | FMT
With both the Liberal and Conservative Party focused on securing leadership, Canada finds itself increasingly divided, yet united in its opposition to Trump’s looming tariffs. The country’s current political landscape reflects the growing tension between conservatism and liberalism across the globe, as the Conservative Party gains ground after years of liberal dominance, yet the Liberals continue to hold their position despite recent setbacks. The outcome of Canada’s upcoming election will be crucial in determining how the nation responds to Trump’s economic pressures while also shaping the direction of their domestic political climate.